Ukraine is running out of financial resources to sustain its armed forces and economy afloat, after almost four years of Russia's full-scale war.
For Europe, the solution to plugging Kyiv's funding gap of €135.7bn for the next two years is found in Moscow's immobilized funds held by Belgian bank Euroclear, and European Union officials aim to give it the green light at their EU leaders' conference next week.
Authorities in Russia warn the EU plan would be an confiscation, and the Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday it was suing Euroclear in a Moscow court ahead of a conclusive plan is made.
In total, Russia has about €210bn of its state reserves blocked in the EU, and €185bn of that is managed by Euroclear.
European and Ukrainian authorities argue that that capital should be used to restore what Russia has laid waste to: The European Commission terms it a "loan for reparations" and has proposed a plan to prop up Ukraine's economy amounting to €90bn.
"It is appropriate that Russia's frozen assets should be used to rebuild what Russia has destroyed – and that those funds then becomes Ukraine's," remarks Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz argues the assets will "enable Ukraine to defend itself efficiently against subsequent Russian attacks".
Moscow's lawsuit was anticipated in Brussels. But it is not only Moscow that is concerned.
The Belgian government is concerned it will be saddled with an huge bill if it all backfires, and Euroclear chief executive Valérie Urbain warns using the assets could "disrupt the world's financial order".
Euroclear also has an approximate €16-17bn immobilised in Russia.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever has given Brussels a series of "logical, sensible, and warranted conditions" before he will agree to the reparations plan, and he has left open the possibility of legal action if it "presents significant risks" for his country.
European Union officials is under pressure ahead of next Thursday's summit to agree on a arrangement that Belgium can support.
So far the EU has held off using the frozen capital directly but starting in 2024 has paid the "excess income" from them to Ukraine. In 2024 that totaled €3.7bn. From a legal standpoint, using the interest is considered permissible as Russia is subject to sanctions and the returns are not Moscow's sovereign assets.
But global military support for Ukraine has declined sharply in 2025, and Europe has found it difficult to cover the shortfall left by the US decision to virtually halt funding Ukraine under President Donald Trump.
There are at the moment two EU proposals aimed at providing Ukraine with €90bn, to pay for a large portion of its funding needs.
The EU's executive recognizes Belgium has valid worries and states it is convinced it has dealt with them.
The scheme is for Belgium to be safeguarded with a insurance applying to all the €210bn of Russian assets in the EU.
Should Euroclear incur losses of its own assets in Russia, the loss would be compensated from assets belonging to Russia's own clearing house which are in the EU.
In the event that Russia went after Belgium itself, any ruling by a Russian court would not be accepted in the EU.
In a significant move, EU ambassadors are set to approve on Friday to permanently block Russia's central bank assets held in Europe permanently.
Previously they have had to vote by consensus every six months to extend the freeze, which could have meant a ongoing risk to Belgium.
The EU ambassadors are planning to use an extraordinary measure under Article 122 of the EU Treaties so the assets continue to be immobilized as long as an "clear risk to the economic interests of the union" continues.
Belgium is firm it remains a strong supporter of Ukraine, but identifies legal risks in the plan and worries about being left to handle the consequences if things fail.
A usually fractured political scene in this case has rallied behind Prime Minister Bart de Wever, who is being pressured from fellow EU leaders.
"Belgium has a modest-sized economy. Belgian GDP is approximately €565bn – think about if it would need to carry a €185bn bill," comments Veerle Colaert, professor of financial law at KU Leuven University.
While the EU might be able to secure sufficient protections for the loan itself, Belgium is concerned about an additional danger of being subject to extra legal costs.
Prof Colaert also contends the stipulation for Euroclear to issue credit to the EU would violate EU banking regulations.
"Lenders need to follow prudential rules and shouldn't concentrate risk. Now the EU is asking Euroclear to do precisely that.
"What is the purpose of these financial regulations? It's because we want banks to be secure. And if things go wrong it would become the responsibility of Belgium to save Euroclear. That's another reason why it's so crucial for Belgium to secure water-tight protections for Euroclear."
The situation is urgent, caution a group of EU member states including those bordering Russia such as the Baltics, Finland and Poland. They maintain the scheme involving immobilized capital is "a financially feasible and practically possible solution".
"It is a decisive moment for us," says leading German conservative MP Norbert Röttgen. "If we fail, I don't know what we'll do subsequently. That's why we have to succeed in a week's time".
While Russia is adamant its money should not be used, there are further worries among European figures that the US may want to use Russia's immobilized billions for another purpose, as part of its own diplomatic proposal.
Zelensky has indicated Ukraine is working with Europe and the US on a rebuilding fund, but he is also mindful the US has been talking to Russia about future co-operation.
An early draft of the US peace plan referred to $100bn of Russia's blocked funds being used by the US for reconstruction, with the US {taking|receiving
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