Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”