Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.