Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring

A major talking point of England's top flight this campaign concerns the decline of scoring in open play and the way sides are netting increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.

When we compare how goals have been scored to the first 11 games the prior season, we see 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, leading to 13 fewer in total.

Examining overall statistics, shot attempts clubs are making reveal a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than this time last season.

Regardless of the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more shots generated from these situations excluding penalties, demonstrating the efficiency sides are at discovering methods to score from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Reveal the Tale

The 301 goals recorded in 110 games up to now averages out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if maintained for the whole season could be the least for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely under 200 goals scored in open play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the smallest for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

The 2009-10 season is also the only Premier League season to experience scoring at a higher rate from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced by far the biggest decrease, scoring a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than this point the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolverhampton, England's top division's drop in open play goals is predominantly a London phenomenon, with five of the capital's seven sides scoring five or more fewer goals from open-play than the previous year.

In fairness, that's largely down to them netting lots of scores at the early stages of last season as opposed to their genuine struggle to find the net in open play this season.

At the same time City have experienced the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 goals this season arriving in open-play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

We've compared clubs that came up with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off champions Sunderland have scored three extra scores in open-play than the Saints did in matchday 11 en route to the drop the previous campaign.

When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (aside from penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have seen the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've produced in open-play with identical figures from set-pieces.

United have recorded twice as many goals from set-plays as they managed in the first 11 matches last season before Ruben Amorim took charge, while the Black Cats once more are better at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.

Man City seem unaware of the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've scored three less than last season, like Forest, though that might be down to the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

Overall Patterns

Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – are this term's primary examples by scoring fewer scores from open play and additional from set-pieces, while Man City are the unique club to buck the trend to date by performing the exact opposite.

It will be fascinating to observe if clubs carry on to depend greatly on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and start scoring more goals in open play as well.