An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.
“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in remarks that exceed previous warnings by his superior, the defence secretary.
“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”
It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.
And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.
This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.
One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to three previous defence secretaries.
But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.
Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.
It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.
And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.
With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.
He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.
His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.
Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.
While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.
“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”
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